Major events

Germany: deserving, obvious World Cup winners (almost nobody predicted)

* So the World Cup is over, Germany are fitting champions, Lionel Messi couldn't add the ultimate title to his glittering CV and the host nation is left to ponder what might have been. So who could have forecast this? Actually, a huge variety of ‘experts’, theorists, modelers and systems tried to predict the outcome of the tournament, from Goldman Sachs to boffin statistical organisations. In his latest post for Sportingintelligence, and as a wrap-up of an ongoing evaluation of rates of success (click HERE for Part 1 and background and click HERE for Part 2 and HERE for Part 3) Roger Pielke Jr announces the winners and...


Bankers and bookies oust FIFA as best bets for World Cup forecasts

* This post has been updated on 27 June, UK time, an earlier version of same story is below Yesterday's games at the World Cup mean the World Cup group games (48 of 48) have been completed.  There have been expected victories for some nations, big upsets for others – Adios Spain! Bye-bye England! - and more goals than most fans would have expected. So who could have forecast this? Actually, a huge variety of ‘experts’, forecasters, theorists, modelers and systems have tried to predict the outcome of this tournament, from Goldman Sachs to boffin statistical organisations. In his latest post for Sportingintelligence, and as...


Upsets, giant-killings, adios, bye-bye: FIFA rankings STILL ahead in predicting results

* At the completion of the Italy-Costa Rica match in Group D in Recife, half of the 2014 World Cup group games (24 of 48) had been played.  There have been expected victories for some nations, big upsets for others - Adios Spain! Bye-bye England! - and more goals than most fans would have expected. So who could have forecast this? Actually, a huge variety of ‘experts’, forecasters, theorists, modelers and systems have tried to predict the outcome of this tournament, from Goldman Sachs to boffin statistical organisations. In his second post for Sportingintelligence, and as part of an ongoing evaluation of rates...