By Brian Sears
16 November 2012
If Manchester City can avoid defeat at home to Aston Villa this weekend they will stretch their season’s unbeaten record to 12 games, and stretch their unbeaten home record to 36 games – the second-best unbeaten home league run in the 21-year history of the Premier League.
Only Chelsea between 2004 and 2008 under Jose Mourinho have had a longer unbeaten home run in the Premier League era than 36 games: 86 matches, of which 62 (or 72 per cent) were wins.
City have won 32 of the 35 games in their current home unbeaten streak, a ratio of 91.4 per cent wins. If they get to 36 games unbeaten they will match Manchester United’s run from 1999-2000 but have a better win ratio than United’s run on that occasion. (See graphic).
As they sing at The Etihad: “Mancini, whoa oh ho; he comes from Italy; to manage Man City; Mancini.” [Scarf, pasta, etcetera].
The question for a statistician is: What chance City have of remaining unbeaten this weekend?
History suggests they an exceptionally good chance because they have won more points at home in the Premier League era against this weekend’s opponents Aston Villa (56 from 30 meetings) than against any other opponents.
This is City’s 16th Premier League season and no club has provided City with more points, more wins and more goals scored than Villa.
City’s complete Premier League record at home by opponent is below.