By Brian Sears
24 November 2011
As Swansea City’s manager Brendan Rodgers starts talks about a new contract, analysis by Sportingintelligence shows that Swansea and their fellow promoted teams in the Premier League – QPR and Norwich – each have at least a 76 per cent chance of survival this season, based on their decent starts.
Even before a ball was kicked, history suggests the promoted trio each had a 53.6 per cent chance of survival. This is based on 56 teams previous being promoted to the Premier League since 1992, and 30 of those 56 teams (or 53.6 per cent) surviving their first season. That means 26 of the 56 immediately went down.
This season, all three promoted teams have made promising starts and have gained a total of 41 points, having played 12 games each, with QPR on 15 points, and Norwich and Swansea on 13 points each.
Among the 56 promoted teams in the past 19 seasons, 34 of them amassed 13 or more points from their first dozen games, and of those 34, eight were relegated (or 23.5 per cent), meaning the survival rate for 13 points after a dozen games is 76.5 per cent. (Details of the eight who went down are in the table below).
On this basis, Norwich and Swansea, with 13 points after 12 games, each have a 76 per cent survival chance.
QPR’s chances with 15 points after 13 games, are even better. Among promoted teams, only 24 have amassed as many points from the first 12 games, and only four of those, or 16.7 per cent, ended up relegated. So that means 83.3 per cent survived – and that’s QPR’s survival chance now.
The highest tally for a promoted side after 12 games was amassed by Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 (with 27 points) followed by Wigan (25 points in 2005-06) and Blackburn (25 points in 1992-93).
The lowest tallies were amassed by Swindon (five points from first 12 games 1993-94) and Sunderland (five points in 2005-06), then Derby (six points in 2007-08).